Hotel Kabuki
1625 Post Street
San Francisco, CA 94118
Monday, April 26, 2010
9am – 6pm + cocktail party
The Future of Money & Technology Summit will bring together the best and brightest thinkers around money, including visionaries, entrepreneurial business people, developers, press, investors, authors, solution providers, service providers, and organizations who work with them at the convergence of cash and commerce. We meet to discuss the evolving money ecosystem in a proactive, conducive to deal making environment.
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According to the BrooklynEagle, former Brooklyn federal prosecutor Richard Weber, currently the Chief of the Asset Forfeiture and Money Laundering Section (AFMLS) of the United States Department of Justice, has been appointed Chief of the Major Economic Crimes Bureau, a consolidation and expansion of the resources of the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office for the purpose of combating complex economic crime.
“Weber was an Assistant United States Attorney and Chief of Asset Forfeiture in the United States Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York, based in Downtown Brooklyn, where he served for 10 years and prosecuted and coordinated complex multiagency domestic and international money laundering, financial, tax, and forfeiture cases.”
“At the Justice Department, Weber oversaw prosecutions against major domestic and international financial institutions and corporations, including the federal portion of the Credit Suisse and Lloyds investigations, Union Bank of California, American Express Bank International, BankAtlantic, E Gold Ltd. (an internet-based digital currency business), and Sigue Corporation (a global money service business).”
The Major Economic Crimes Bureau will be responsible for all manner of complex financial investigations, including:
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On February 17, Jason Fried wrote an article announcing 37signals’s intention to hire an outside firm to redesign their blog, Signals vs. Noise. Companies wishing to be considered for the project would be required to have a Pro listing on Sortfolio.com — 37signals’s yellow-pages service for finding web design companies. March 8th was the date earmarked for choosing the winning firm.
Our small team at Makalu Interactive decided to give it a shot, and tweeted our interest just in time, on March 5th.
March 8th has since come and gone without any news from 37signals, and so it’s likely they’ve chosen someone else. That’s disappointing, of course, as we’re confident we’d have been a great choice. On the other hand, simply going for the project resulted in a surprising number of positive consequences, from which a few lessons can be learned.
A million and one excuses…
Since it launched, we’d been intending to establish a Pro listing at Sortfolio. It’s a well-designed service, and quickly established itself as the place to advertise your web design firm. But we hadn’t done so yet, because we first wanted to redesign our own corporate website at makalumedia.com (its previous design was probably three quarters of a decade old; prehistoric as internet time goes!) What good would it do to have a slick Sortfolio listing, if potential clients ultimately navigated to an archaic corporate site?
Turns out, we’d actually been thinking about redesigning makalumedia.com for the past three years, but hadn’t quite settled on how to proceed, since the company has evolved into two distinct businesses — aerospace (in Germany), and interactive products (in the USA).
It further turns out, that we’ve actually had an interactive design sitting on the shelf for the past half year, but hadn’t yet implemented it for lack of time due to client work, uncertainty on how best to integrate it into WordPress, and reservations about launching it alongside our existing site.
Dependencies. Procrastination. Uncertainty. Nothing getting done.
Get started now! (or, constraints are good.)
To bid on this project, we had to design and setup a Sortfolio presentation, and do it now, regardless of how our corporate site looked. Alex and I set aside a dedicated afternoon, turned off everything, and focused. The tight time constraint forced us to take decisions with little debate, and by 11 PM on Friday night we had our design online. It was “good enough.”
Later that evening, I got an alert from Chartbeat that makalumedia.com was seeing a whole lot of traffic. Checking Twitter, I got super excited to find that our Sortfolio entry had caught 37signals’s attention — and they liked it!
On Monday morning we thought, “Right. We have to launch a redesign of the Makalu Interactive site, and we have to do it now.” Again considering the time constraint, we settled on the idea of a simple, focused, one-page site. Alex hunkered down, repurposed our shelved design, and 24-hours later, Makalu Interactive was launched.
Another 24-hours later, another high traffic alert from Chartbeat. This time, however, it was because the new site had been “FAVd” at CSSMania.
All this activity caught the attention of our colleagues over at Makalu Aerospace (Germany), who of course demanded not to be left behind in aesthetic dust. So another focused burst of inspiration, and a similar one-page design was born.
(The new Aerospace site isn’t implemented yet, but check back on Monday, and you’ll likely find it is.)
Reflecting on all this…
Alex and I were reflecting on all this over coffee this morning.
Although we didn’t achieve what we set out to do — win the 37signal blog redesign project — it was obvious that going for it brought a lot of benefits, and uncovered some important lessons.
Working within constraints is good. The deadline of March 8 not only forced us into action, but forced us into a highly efficient and effective mode of work. To find time, we had to organize our client work with laser-like precision, so that it wouldn’t suffer as a consequence. To meet the bidding deadline, we had to collaborate and make pragmatic decisions. We had to accept “good enough,” which later proved to be “much better than we thought!”
Finally, achieving so much in such a short period of time created a renewed momentum of motivation and excitement that’s certainly going to benefit us going forward.
It's good to dream:
IARPA's five-year plan aims to design experiments that can measure trust with high certainty -- a tricky proposition for a psychological study. Developing such experimental protocols could prove very useful for assessing levels of trust within one-on-one talks, or even during group interactions.A second part of the IARPA proposal might involve using new types of sensors and software to gauge human facial, language or body signals that might help predict trustworthiness. Perhaps facial recognition technology that could deduce emotions or facial tics might help, not to mention better lie detectors.
IARPA is the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, the U.S. intelligence community's answer to DARPA.

One day, we knew, biotech would become so easy and so cheap that two guys in a garage could hack life in the way kids hack code. That day is now here. Exhibit A is this biohacking lab in a garage in Silicon Valley. Assembled from used equipment the kit includes two clean cell-culture hoods, an incubator, two robot sequencers, and lots of software packed into a suburban garage. The guys are screening antic-cancer compounds.
Not that everyone thought a do-it-yourself biotech lab was inevitable. Many folks in the biotech industry have repeatedly explained why biotech is different, how it is far more complex than digital stuff, requiring far more education to master, how the subject is far more delicate requiring far more precision in experiments, and the equipment thus far more expensive than anything computers use, meaning overall that garage biotech hackers were very unlikely. "You need a PhD and a clean room" they would say.
Maybe you do, but Rob Carlson, who has been tracking biotech for decades, recently photographed the above pictures of the DIY biotech. He also pointed to the example of maker-types constructing DIY clean rooms, such as this one made from industrial shelving and off-the-shelf filters.

As Carlson explains:
I continue to get push back from people who assert that "it is really too hard" to hack biology in a garage, or too expensive, or that garage labs just can't be up to snuff. This sort of dissent usually comes out of National Labs, Ivy League professors, or denizens of the beltway. All I can say to this is -- Doodz, you need to get out more.The people who built the lab pictured above are pursuing a project that is technically well beyond anything discussed on the DIYBio list, and while they may be watching the DIYBio conversation they don't advertise what they are up to. It would be better for all of us if we could rest assured that conversations about this sort of work could proceed in the open without guys showing up in biohazard suits with weapons drawn -- Youtube, at the 00:00:48 mark.
There continues to be a prominent thread of conversation in Washington DC that "biohacking" is somehow aberrant and strange. But apparently DIYBio, you'll be happy to hear, is a group composed of the Good Guys. Everyone should feel happy and safe, I guess. Or maybe not so much, but not for the reasons you might think.
The creation of a false dichotomy between "DIY Biotech" (good guys) and "Biohacking" (bad guys) lends unfortunate credence to the notion that there is an easily identifiable group of well-meaning souls who embrace openness and who are eager to work with the government. On the contrary, in my experience there are a number of people who are actively hacking biology in their garages who intentionally keep a low profile (I am not certain how many and know of no existing measure, but see discussion above). This tally included me until a little over a year ago, though now my garage houses a boat under restoration. These people often consider themselves "hackers", in the same vein as people who hack computers, boats (!), cars, and their own houses. Yes, it is all hacking, or Making, or whatever you want to call it, and not only is it generally
.
As he says in Chapter One:
The influence of exponentially improving biological technologies is only just now starting to be felt. Today writing a gene from scratch within a few weeks costs a few thousand dollars. In five to ten years that amount should pay for much larger constructs, perhaps a brand-new viral or microbial genome. Gene and genome-synthesis projects of this larger scale have already been demonstrated as academic projects. When such activity becomes commercially viable, a synthetic genome could be used to build an organism that produces fuel, or a new plastic, or a vaccine to combat the outbreak of a new infectious disease.As I will discuss in Chapter 6, the costs of reading and writing new genes and genomes are falling by a factor of two every eighteen to twenty-four months, and productivity in reading and writing is independently doubling at a similar rate. We are just now emerging from the "slow" part of the curves, by which I mean that the cost and productivity of these technologies are now enabling enormous discovery and innovation. Consequently, access to technology is also accelerating. "Garage biology" is here already; in Chapter 12 I share a bit of my own experience sorting out how much innovation is possible in this context.
Dubai-- March 10 2010 is a start date for gBullion - new payment system that enables any user to buy/sell gold and make safe instant payments all over the world.
All transactions are made in system digital currency – gB, wherein 1 gB is equal to 1 gold gram. After the purchase gold bars (of 99, 5% or higher purity) are stored in the specialized secure Vault while corresponding quantity of gold grams (gB) is transferred to electronic gBullion client account.
At any time user can exchange digital gold (gB) for real gold and obtain gold bars from a Vault located in UAE, or take delivery to specified address. Besides gB holder can transfer his digital gold (gB) to another gBullion user. All transfers are instant and free.
“Our experts were to develop internet service based on three principles: minimum charges, easy use, and high degree of reliability. Their work resulted in the unique product of high quality that is coincident with all these demands. Today a growing number of investors become interested in gold, that is of no wonder for gold turns to be the most stable currency in the world, and gBullion is the most convenient instrument for operations with this metal” - Andrew Owen, CEO gBullion.
Features:
- possibility to buy gold in minimum quantity (from 0,0001 gram);
- gB currency is 100% gold backed;
- the best market prices for gold purchase and sale through internet;
- insurance of all gold bars;
- referral program and other variants of business with gBullion;
The system operator is GBULLION DMCC Company registered in Dubai, UAE, and licensed to sell gold.
GBULLION DMCC work is inspected by the CPA firm. An auditor’s report with the information about available assets and quantity of gold bars at vaults will be regularly announced in our site. At the moment the site gBullion operates in test mode and only in English. Other languages will be soon available.
Christine Thompson
Manager of PR & Marketing Communications
www.gbullion.com
Coastie with a Remington 870 short barreled shotgun.Federal and state law across the American landscape (and certainly here in Washington State) almost uniformly declares schools to be “gun-free zones,” yet the U.S. Department of Education is in the process of purchasing more than two-dozen short-barreled police-style shotguns which are supposed to be delivered by March 22 to an address in Chicago, IL.
A source in New York stumbled over the solicitation notice, which carries the number: EDOOIG-10-000004.
The purchase is for 27 Remington Model 870 pump-action shotguns with 14-inch modified choke barrels (the legal minimum length for private citizens is 18 inches without a special license). These shotguns are to be fitted with Wilson Combat ghost ring rear sights, Knoxx adjustable stocks and Speedfeed fore-ends.

While this revelation may raise a few eyebrows, here’s something else to think about: Last August, Winchester Ammunition announced that it had been awarded a contract by the Department of Homeland Security to supply the division of Immigration, Customs and Enforcement (ICE) with a maximum of 200 million rounds of .40 S&W-caliber ammunition over the next five years. That’s just over 3.3 million rounds a month for a 60-month period.
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Winchester Ammunition was recently awarded a contract by the Immigration, Customs and Enforcement (ICE) division of the Department of Homeland Security to supply a maximum of 200 million, 40 cal. rounds over the next five years.
Winchester produces superb ammunition and this is certainly an economic shot in the arm for a company that has served American shooters and hunters faithfully for generations. But what is ICE doing with 3.3 million rounds of ammunition a month? That seems to be a great deal of shooting, whether it is on the practice range or in the field.
It’s just your tax dollars at work.
According to the head of economic affairs at Brazil’s foreign ministry, Carlos Marcio Cozendey, the plan is “to distribute the retaliation broadly in order to maximise pressure.”
The “retaliation” he refers to includes trade sections on 100 US goods, ranging from cars to milk powder. The tariffs are in response to cotton producer subsidies the US has kept in place despite a 2008 WTO ruling that found the practice discriminatory.
From the BBC News:
“The World Trade Organization (WTO) approved the sanctions in a rare move.
“Brazil published a list of 100 US goods that would be subject to import tariffs in 30 days, unless the two governments reached a last-minute accord.
“It said it regretted the sanctions, but that eight years of litigation had failed to produce a result.
“It said it would raise tariffs on $591m (£393m) worth of US products – from cars, where the tariff will increase from 35% to 50%, to milk powder, which would see a 20% increase in the levy.
“Cotton and cotton products would be charged 100% import tariff, the highest on the list.”
As a rising economic force Brazil is taking a strong stance on the issue. It’s not insignificant to begin a trade confrontation the largest economy in the world. We’ll watch closely to see how this aggressiveness plays out.
Read more of the history behind the subsidies and about what the response means in the BBC’s coverage of Brazil’s US trade sanctions.
Best,
Rocky Vega,
The Daily Reckoning
Brazil Launches Salvo of Trade Sanctions Against US originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."
The pills that I thought were tranquilizers turned out to be vitamins, and although I am on the verge of some kind of mental breakdown because of the mix-up, I feel great!
Turning to the old tried and true, I soon learned that I had started too late, and I was not nearly drunk enough to have properly anesthetized my nerves when I chanced to read Agora Financial’s 5- Minute Forecast report that “The CBO’s latest numbers reveal that President Obama’s proposed fiscal 2011 budget would add $9.7 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years.”
My hands shook and my guts churned at the horrific prospect of adding $9.7 trillion to the money supply, which means (I gulp in horror at the prospect) inflation in pieces like you never saw! Yikes!
I mean, (my voice rising in pitch and volume) the entire GDP of the USA is about $14 trillion, and the government wants to increase, over ten years, government spending by 70% of everything that this country currently makes!
Apparently eager to change the subject since I seem to be getting worked up about this and could, possibly, probably, almost certainly, damned near guaranteed, erupt into some loud Mogambo Hysterical Tirade (MHT) and make a shambles of everything, The 5 says, “Further, the CBO projects the national debt will be 90% of GDP by the end of this decade”, which I guess they thought would calm me down or something, but it didn’t, which was bad enough to cause me to have chest pains accompanied by loud howls of pain and outrage in another tiresome Screaming Mogambo Fit (SMF), but then went on to make it all worse by saying that debt will equal 90% of GDP, which is “higher than the 83.4% recorded at the end of fiscal 2009 last fall.”
Suddenly, there was an uproar as I jumped to my feet and shouted “What kind of bizarre crap is that? The national debt is already $12.5 trillion in a $14 trillion economy, and somehow you add $9.7 trillion to $12.5 trillion to get 90% of the economy which means that …that…that…”
Well, I knew what I meant to say, but did not have a calculator handy, and the security guards had me by the arms and were hustling me out of the room pretty quick.
I later found out that what I meant to say, but did not have the figures handy, is that this means that the CBO thinks that, unbelievably, in ten short years, a staggering $22 trillion of national debt will be 90% of the economy, which means that the CBO thinks that the economy in ten years will be, I gulp to report, $24 trillion, which is a whopping 71% higher than today! I am stunned!
What can one say but, “We are freaking doomed!”
Perhaps hearing my plaintive voice with its unmistakable undertone of angry paranoia and wanting me to calm down, The 5 says, “We’re 100% certain this comment will elicit the customary response: ‘Look at Japan, its debt is 170% of GDP…and it’s been running massive deficits for years!’”
I think to myself, “Okay, they just take time to raise the blade of the guillotine higher and higher, but the end result will be the same, and if anyone thinks that Japan proves otherwise, then I laugh the Mogambo Laugh Of Scorn (MLOS) at them and turn around to wave my buttocks in their faces in a final fillip of disrespect!”
The 5, in what I imagine is said with a deliciously snotty tone, says, “To which we can only sigh and respond: ‘Exactly.’”
Well, I can do more than that, because I am, after all, The Loudmouth Mogambo (TLM)! And I say that if all prices doubled, today, GDP (which measures spending) would instantly double, too! Hahahaha! Everything costs twice as much, but the economy looks like it boomed! Hahahaha! Welcome to Inflationary Hell!
I often marvel that it’s a good thing that the poor are usually ignorant or stupid, because if they could, or would, comprehend how this huge explosion of money is going to make prices rise and make them enormously poorer and more miserable, worse and worse, and probably for the rest of their lives, they would go freaking berserk.
As for the middle class, they are supposed to be smart and educated enough to know this stuff, but they don’t, and so they don’t understand the sheer enormity of how much poorer and miserable they will be for decades to come, either, and they will suffer, too.
Then there are those of us who are buying gold, silver and oil to protect ourselves against the ruinous, crushing, cataclysmic inflation in prices that this inflation in the money supply, and debt, will cause, because then, for us, it all becomes idle dilettantism and pleasure, which is, once you boil it down, the whole point of investing, isn’t it?
And could anything be easier? Whee! This investing stuff is easy!
The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning
CBO Budget Projections and the Horrors of Inflation originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."
The private sector ruined itself in the bubble of ’03-’07. Now, it’s the public sector’s turn. All over the developed world – with a few exceptions – the feds are adding debt at an alarming rate.
The US has already passed “the point of no return,” says a report from Casey Research. Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart put that point where external debt passes 73% of GDP or 239% of exports. IMF data, says the Casey team, shows the US has already gone too far on both scores, with external debt at 96% of GDP and 748% of exports.
We’re in Mumbai, India, checking in with one of our ‘strategic partners.’
In our family office, where we keep the family money, we take big bets over long periods of time…working with strategic partners who are knowledgeable about key sectors. Last year, we missed the rally in US stocks. But we’re lucky in our choice of friends and business partners. Two of our strategic partners – one in the resource area…the other in India – more than doubled our money.
Over the last 12 months, Mumbai’s Sensex index has gone up more than 108%.
But our bet on India is for the very long term. In the recent financial crisis, that bet seemed to go bad. Foreign investors pulled their money out of India along with other emerging markets – even though India had very little exposure to the banking crisis itself.
What’s ahead? Seven percent GDP growth this year…nine percent next year. The first figure is news. The second is a forecast. But there are good reasons to be bullish on India for the long pull. Stay tuned…
Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning
Investing in India: News and Forecasts for the Long Haul originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."
Hip hip, hooray! Hip hip, hooray!
Our little big bull market celebrated its one-year anniversary yesterday, albeit in tentative style. The Dow managed to eke out an 11-point gain, while the broader S&P 500 fared only slightly better. Investors, it appears, are awaiting the next catalyst to keep the momentum going. But are they running out of excuses to buy?
It is difficult to know precisely what is going on inside the collective brain of the marketplace, but one indicator gives us a hint. The VIX Index, also known as Wall Street’s “Fear Gauge,” measures the implied volatility over the coming thirty days. A high reading represents costlier options, commonly used to hedge against any sudden down trend. A low reading indicates a lower hedging cost, meaning that traders expect relatively calm waters ahead. At its extremes, the VIX Index is a rather useful tool for contrarians. When the VIX breaches its moving averages to the upside, it’s usually a pretty good sign that the market is oversold. Conversely, when the index dips below certain key points, it’s probably a good time to expect the unexpected, so to speak.
Right now, the VIX is bobbing around close to its 18-month lows. That means traders are not forecasting much of anything…a pretty good sign that we’ll see quite a bit of something. Last Friday, the measure fell to 17.5, a level not seen since January…when the S&P promptly fell from around 1,150 to 1,050. Before that, the VIX had not seen a reading of 18 since August of 2008…right before the market went skydiving without a parachute. By March of 2009, a few short and painful months later, indexes around the world had almost managed to saw themselves in half…and worse.
Just before the global financial collapse, your editor took advantage of the rampant overconfidence in the market to implement a little preemptive “austerity plan” of his own. And so, from the gaudy bubble-central of Dubai we took the long road east, making sure to pass through notably inexpensive destinations like India, Nepal and Southeast Asia. Without a country full of union workers to protest the move, this was relatively easy to do (sorry Greece…and France…and Britain…and, well, Europe). Here in the Far East, we can enjoy the same or better lifestyle for a fraction of the price. Rent is less than half what it was in Dubai. Food costs next to nothing. And, as an added bonus, your editor’s girlfriend is not obliged to dress like a ninja when we take weekend trips to neighboring countries…not even when we visit Japan.
One would need a degree in modern economic theory not to see the problems lurking below the surface of this market rally. That or a job in a government office…in which case you’re paid not to notice. But the fortunately untrained eye can’t help but notice the worsening unemployment situation, a deteriorating real estate market – especially in the commercial sector – and a public balance sheet that looks even worse than the private one that led us all into this mess in the first place.
While on our little pilgrimage of austerity – back at the end of ’08 – early ’09 – we ran into dozens of ex-bankers and newly redundant financial services workers. We found them lazing on the beaches of Viet Nam and sipping $2 daiquiris at the bars around Bangkok. A few of them had plans for the future, but mostly they were there to somehow, vaguely, “ride it out.”
Our little big bull market may be a year old but, if we had to bet, we’d say it’s a rally in overconfidence only, as presently exhibited by the VIX index. On the bright side, the bar staff at the resorts in Phuket can look forward to another influx of lost souls armed with loose severance packages.
Joel Bowman
for The Daily Reckoning
Deciphering the VIX Index and the Rally in Overconfidence originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."
Water – I’ve been urging my subscribers to invest in water stocks for several years…and Hyflux is one of my favorites. Hyflux (HYFXF: OTC Bulletin Board) operates in China, Southeast Asia, India, the Middle East and North Africa. It is involved in a variety of water projects, from desalination to recycling. It was among the first stocks ever recommended in my investment service, Mayer’s Special Situations, when I launched the “Blue Gold Portfolio” back in the summer of 2006. Since I recommended it, Hyflux is up 75%, while the S&P 500 is down 10%.
Recently, the company posted a fresh earnings report that showed record results. Hyflux announced net profits of $53 million – a record high and a 27% increase from the year prior. The order book also grew 20%. It generated solid cash flow and maintained a good balance sheet with $120 million in the bank.
Below is a chart I like from the latest earnings presentation. It shows you the growing order book broken down into two categories. EPC is the engineering business that builds plants. This is a more volatile business. The O&M is for operations and maintenance. This is the business the runs desalinization plants and the like. This is a steady cash flow business.
As you can see, the O&M part of the business is growing mightily. This lowers the risk of Hyflux’s business and gives it more of a stable platform of cash flow.

Hyflux is also gaining market share, especially in desalination. This next chart is also from the latest earnings presentation. It shows you Hyflux has emerged as a clear leader among its peers.

Hyflux operates the largest seawater desal plant in China, in Tianjin. The company is also building the largest seawater desal plant in the world in Algeria. There is a ton of room for growth when you consider the urgent and long-term need for water along the New Silk Road.
The stock trades for about 25 times earnings, which roughly matches its growth rate. Hyflux is no longer the great bargain it was; however, it remains one of the best ways to play Asia’s long-term water needs.
Gorman-Rupp (AMEX:GRC), another veteran of the Blue Gold Portfolio, reported good results last week. Gorman-Rupp makes water pumps of all kinds, as well as pumps used in other industries, such as oil and gas. It’s been a great performer since I recommended it in mid-2006. We took half off the position the table after doubling our money. The other half has delivered nearly 12% annually, soundly beating the market. The S&P 500 has fallen 15% over that timeframe.
Gorman-Rupp has a strong balance sheet with no net debt. Sales and earnings were lower in 2009 as a result of the recession, but the longer-term picture looks good. The company remains in good position to capture a share of the rising tide of spending on water and wastewater infrastructure over time. The construction of its new 460,000-square-foot facility is complete and the company moved in during the fourth quarter.
The stock is not likely to light the world on fire, but it’s a good long-term investment in the water sector. Patient investors should give it a look while it trades at depressed earnings levels.
I also like Badger Meter (NYSE:BMI), which makes metering devices, and A.O. Smith (NYSE:AOS), which makes water heaters and has a booming business in China. Valmont (NYSE:VMI), which makes irrigation equipment, is another to watch.
But in all cases, the price paid is important. I like to wait for opportunities to buy stocks on the cheap, like we did with Flowserve (NYSE:FLS), which makes pumps, valve and seals. The stock has doubled since I recommended it, with the promise of more to come. But if the stocks I like aren’t attractively priced, I’ll just sit tight and keep a watchful eye.
Energy Services – T3 Energy Services (NASDAQ:TTES) reported good results last week. T3 is a cash flow machine. It generated $33 million in free cash flow and remains debt free. The market values the stock at $309 million. So you are paying only 9 times a depressed free cash flow number to own this stock. And things look to get stronger as the year goes on and the drilling rebound continues.
One of the interesting notes from the quarter: About 60% of T3’s backlog is for overseas work, confirming again a trend we’ve seen at work in Key Energy Services (NYSE:KEG). T3 sees a lot of demand from the Middle East. It also won a key certification in Saudi Arabia – which had been pending for over a year – for one of its products, which should greatly help sales there.
The company also has a new product that is generating some buzz. It is a new frac system, used to coax more oil or gas out of a well. Without getting too technical, T3’s system allows a driller to service multiple wells from a single location. T3 shipped one for $9 million, or about 17% of revenues for the quarter. After 45 days in the field, the system exceeded customer expectations. No other competitor currently offers this, and T3 will show it off at the upcoming Offshore Technology Conference. This could be an exciting new product for T3.
The company is just above my buy-up-to price of $25, but I would urge buying the stock on any weakness. Business is clearly turning up, and there is lots of room for upside as we get strong results later in the year. Remember, two years ago, the stock hit $80 per share.
Chris Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning
Water Stocks: A Few of My Favorite Things, Part I originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."
Dr. Ron Paul (R-TX) isn’t one to let his opinion go unheard… especially as Congress continues approving massive amounts of debt-financed spending.
From his recent Texas Straight Talk:
“Last week, the House approved another increase in the national debt ceiling. This means the government can borrow $1.9 trillion more to stay afloat and avoid default. It has been little more than a year since the last debt limit increase, and graphs showing the debt limit over time show a steep, almost vertical trend.
“It is not likely to be very long before this new ceiling is met and the government is back on the brink between default and borrowing us further into oblivion.
“Congressional leaders and the administration acknowledge that the debt limit will need to be increased again next year. They are crossing their fingers that the forecasts are correct and they will not need another increase sooner, even before the 2010 midterm elections.”
You have to wonder if anyone else in Congress is considering the consequences of these actions. This excerpt came to our attention via The Daily Bail’s post on how more spending is always the answer. You can view the clip below:
Ron Paul: Not Long Before the Gov’t is “Borrowing us Further Into Oblivion” originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."
Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of the rally. The Dow rose a piddly 11 points. Gold sold off $1.
This rally has gone on for so long most people think it is not a rally at all, but a new bull market. Worldwide, it has taken equities up some 73%…making it one of the greatest rallies ever.
What are we to think? Are we alone in thinking it’s still a trap? What happened to the problems that led to the crisis of ’07-’09?
If you don’t think about it too much you might think everything is fine. Stocks are up. Business profits are up. GDP is up. Housing and unemployment seem to be stabilized. What’s not to like?
The recovery is a done deal as far as most people see it. The rescue efforts, initiated by the feds, were a big success…or so they believe. It has been 12 months since the bottom…and the world still has not ended. Everything is back to normal…isn’t it?
The problem in ’07-’09 was that too many people owed too much money.
And what has happened to change that? The net level of indebtedness in the US has actually gone up since ’07!
Huh? How’s that? We’re in a de-leveraging phase, aren’t we?
Well…yes…but only in the private sector. The feds are still adding debt.
Let’s look at the private sector first. There, we find unemployment still around 10%. Adult males in their prime working years, however, have fewer jobs than ever before. One figure we saw shows that only 4 out of 5 of them are working.
That is just the beginning of the problem for these fellows. They’re getting fewer college degrees, compared to women, than ever before. They’re earning less money too – again, compared to women. Fewer are the chief breadwinners in their households. And fewer are even in a household at all – more are alone.
Let’s not get distracted by the suffering of the masculine part of the population…
…we’re looking at what is going on in the broader economy. Is it healthy and growing? Or is the stock market just a honey trap…a bear market trap for the unwary investor?
The private sector is de-leveraging. Not only is the unemployment rate high, the typical family also lost a lot of money when its house went down in price. And since the typical householder is also in his 40s or 50s, he has to consider his retirement and how he’s going to fund it.
Stocks? While they’ve bounced back nicely, the stock market is still well below its highs…and still in a losing position over the last ten years. A 73% gain sounds nice, but it would take a 100% gain to recover the losses of the ’07-’09 bear market.
Houses? One out of four mortgaged houses is still underwater. In some new developments, the figure is as high as one out of two. And there is little likelihood that the owners will be high and dry anytime soon. People no longer expect to retire on the gains from their houses.
This leaves the middle-aged householder without much choice. He has to save money. Remember, the boom of the 2003-2007 period was caused by dis-saving. Now, a higher savings rate will mean less spending for many, many years. This is a fundamental and important change of direction for the economy. It will restrict business growth and restrain profit growth too.
So, is it possible to slough off the crisis and return to business as usual? Nope. Not possible. You can pretend that things are back to normal. You can act as if they are back to normal. You can invest as though they are back to normal. But you can also lose your money.
But they’re not normal at all. They’re different. The 1982 to 2007 period was…mostly…a boom time, caused by rapid increases in debt, asset prices, and consumer spending. The next period is…mostly…a bust time – when asset prices, private debt, and consumer spending go down.
Sooner or later, but probably sooner, the stock market will realize it. Our Crash Alert flag – tattered and faded – is still flying.
Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning
Private Sector De-leveraging: A Rally in a Bull Costume originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."
Since they are hard to conceal, the study says, noses would work well for identification in covert surveillance.The researchers say noses have been overlooked in the growing field of biometrics, studies into ways of identifying distinguishing traits in people.
"Noses are prominent facial features and yet their use as a biometric has been largely unexplored," said the University of Bath's Dr Adrian Evans.
"Ears have been looked at in detail, eyes have been looked at in terms of iris recognition but the nose has been neglected."
The researchers used a system called PhotoFace, developed by researchers at the University of the West of England, Bristol and Imperial College, London, for the 3D scans.
by Addison Wiggin & Ian Mathias
Here in the States, they’d call it a bubble. On the other side of the world, it’s “robust growth,” as The New York Times wrote this morning. Check this out:
1) Chinese exports increased 46% over the last year, China’s government reported overnight. 46%! That’s the best rate of annual growth since 2007, before the global crisis began in earnest.
2) China also released annual crude oil imports ending in February -- up 58% year over year, to a near record 4.8 million bpd.
3) Residential and commercial real estate prices in 70 Chinese cities rose 10.7% in February, year over year. In the Hainan province, new home prices suffered a nearly 50% annual rise. (It’s a lovely tropical island, but still… 50%?)
What happens when the music stops? Bubble or boom, China is the strongest staple of the loosely bound “global recovery.”

“The Chinese are laying highways like nobody’s business,” notes Chris Mayer, picking up a piece of the construction boom illustrated above. “By the end of 2008, China had an estimated 60,000 km of highway. The U.S. has 75,000 km. Over the next few years, China plans to have 85,000 km of roads.
“This is having some amazing effects. For instance, China recently built a highway from Lhasa, Tibet, that runs all the way to the Nepali border. Along this road is the city of Shigatse, a formerly sleepy town where tourists may stop to gaze at ancient monasteries on their way to Mount Everest. But today, it is also a place where people get rich running freight services along the 515-mile highway…
“This allows an easy mixing of peoples and the freedom to pursue their own ends leads people to trade. Business expands. The quality of life rises. The roads are doing their work. The cars and trucks are coming. Where are the opportunities?
“I’m more interested in investment ideas that are a step removed from actually building the roads and cars that use them. All those cars will eat up a lot of metals of all kinds, for example. They will also burn a lot of fuel.
“Dig deeper and you’ll find China loves methanol as an alternative fuel to blend with gasoline to lower emissions. China blends more than a billion gallons of methanol in gasoline annually. And its appetite for methanol is growing more than 16% a year. Methanol, made from coal or natural gas, is China’s ethanol.”
As China dependant as it might be, the great global bear market rally remains intact. Stocks did little yesterday, thus the S&P is still up 2% year to date, and 66% from its crisis low.
“The market momentum looks to carry stock prices to new post-recession highs,” speculates one of our traders, Alan Knuckman. “The S&P has blown through the 1,120 Nov/Dec triple-top resistance. Prices currently sit around 1,140 with the January highs at 1,148 soon to be tested.
”The market is littered with those who have questioned the legitimacy of this run-up, both economically and politically. Price momentum and trends are very powerful forces that are oft best to work with, not against. Eventually, stock prices will top out and fade, but the urge to be the first to pick that turn needs to be repressed for now…
“Stocks, gold and oil have assumed leadership positions at different times, but all have tended to move in the same directions. Until those relationships change, we plan to keep doing what we have been doing successfully.”
Alan’s Resource Trader Alert readers have found some remarkable success, indeed. With his trading advice, readers brought in 22 winning trades in 2009, with an average gain – including the losers – of 56%. That’s terrific. If you want to be on board for the rest of 2010, look here.
Since stocks are little changed from yesterday, gold and oil are right about where we left them. Gold is a bit higher, at $1,125. Ditto with oil, at $81.
For income investors, the real opportunities are abroad, says Jim Nelson. “One glance at your Lifetime Income Report portfolio will tell you how we feel about international investing. We think you’d be a fool to forget about the rest of the world when it comes to income. Just take a look at this…
“In the 1970s, the U.S. controlled a 70% share of the world’s financial markets. And according to Reuters, that number “could shrink to 30% by 2030.” Yet U.S. investors hold only about 5-10% of their investment wealth in foreign stocks and bonds. That’s a ridiculously low number, considering that soon, seven out of every 10 dollars will be made abroad.
“That’s not even the most enticing stat to switch to a broader international exposure… As income investors, it’s impossible to ignore the massive dividend yields foreign markets offer. The major indexes of many foreign markets are posting yields that are two, and even three, times larger than the S&P 500.

“That’s why we have spent the last year ramping up the Lifetime Income Report portfolio with solid foreign income plays. For tickers, look here.”
Back in the U.S., the Treasury is expected to release another record-busting budget deficit today. Though not out until 2 p.m. EST, the Street expects around $220 billion in shortfall for February. That would bring the fiscal year total to over $650 billion -- up 10% compared with the same period last year and on course to top last year’s record $1.4 trillion budget gap. Oy.
“We need to recognize that what threatens this ship of state is the ice that's below the water in the iceberg,” David Walker, the protagonist in our documentary I.O.U.S.A. , told NPR yesterday. “It's not today's $12.4 trillion in debt. It's the $50 trillion in unfunded obligations for Medicare, Social Security, other commitments and contingencies that we don't know how we're going to keep…”
For example, “in Medicare, I think we have to recognize… that there are actually three Medicare programs. There's Medicare Part A, which is hospital insurance, which is funded with a payroll tax, and there are B and D, which are physician and out-payment and prescription drugs, which are voluntary programs funded with a combination of premiums and general revenues and state contributions.
“The first thing we have to do is recognize that under Medicare Part B and Medicare Part D, billionaires receive subsidies for voluntarily signing up for those programs. That makes no sense… we should have more means-tested premiums than we do right now.
“We need to also be able to have more competitive bidding with regard to Medicare. We need to move away from the fee-for-service payment system. We need to move more towards evidence-based medicine. We need to do something with regard to malpractice. We need to move to electronic records, more integrated-care systems, a number of things that not only apply to Medicare, but also have to apply to our overall health care system.
“And last, but certainly not least, we need to learn the lessons of every major industrialized nation. We need a budget for how much taxpayer resources we'll allocate for health care. We're the only major industrialized nation that doesn't do that. Every other country has recognized that it'll bankrupt you if you don't.“
If you like what David has to say, you should join us in Vancouver this year. He was one of the most popular guests at the 2008 event, and we suspect he’ll be a crowd favorite again. We’ve asked him to fill us in on what’s been happening since we finished filming I.O.U.S.A., the effort to get the deficit commission established and -- of course -- some dirt on all those closed-door bailout meetings to which he was privy. There’s only one way to hear what he has to say -- be there.
“Yesterday, I received a letter in the mail from the Census Bureau,” a reader writes, “telling me that in a week the census form will be mailed to me. How much did we spend on mailing out the pre-Census letter. What a waste!”
“I read with interest the note from your reader whose friend landed a modern-day WPA job with the Census Bureau,” another writes. “Perhaps providing temporary jobs is the only viable reason for doing the census. Of course, it does give politicians something to squabble over when it comes time to dole out the federal pork.
“But surely, with all the data and tools at hand in today's federal government, it is no issue to estimate population size and location in this country... if that's even important to do. If there were a good reason for doing the census, it likely would have been spelled out in a recent letter the bureau sent to all citizens. Instead, the letter essentially appealed to us to mail in our forms, or our local communities would not receive all the benefits (pork) to which they are entitled. Sounds like the feds already suspect us folks care squat about counting noses and need a little threat to solicit action. What a sad state of affairs.”
“Before you get too smarmy about Census activities, you need to consider a few things,” our last reader writes. “I spent some time working with the Census Bureau as a consultant, helping them prepare for the 2000 Census. If you want a crappy, thankless job go run the Census Bureau. It's a political and logistical nightmare.
“While my numbers may be a bit stale (the numbers would actually be larger now), it is interesting to note that the human resources ramp up for enumerators (home visitors) and others is second only in effort to ramping up for war. In 2000, approximately 250,000 people were needed. The success rate on interviewing was about 1 in 4. The people hired had to be people that could survive somewhat of a background check; were presentable; could speak intelligently with people to extract Census data out of them; and would not be afraid to go to rotten parts of town, where most of the follow-up had to occur. And oh yeah, would only want this job for three or four months, starting in April (leaves out most college students).
“You may find an undependable deadbeat to work for a nickel an hour. But given the "security" requirements of the job... finding a quarter million workers for a few months, who happen to be situated in the right location, is not an easy (or cheap) task.”
Thanks for reading,
Ian Mathias
The 5 Min. Forecast
P.S. You have just one day left to take us up on a $1 Mayer’s Special Situations trial. Seriously -- just one buck for full access to the MSS portfolio and one month of Chris’ high-end advice. We can’t make a deal much sweeter than that… take advantage here, before the offer expires tomorrow.
Yes, a bright shiny new Digital Gold Currency has now opened in the UAE https://www.gbullion.com/
March 10, 2010 — March 10 2010 is a start date for gBullion – new payment system that enables any user to buy/sell gold and make safe instant payments all over the world.
All transactions are made in system digital currency – gB, wherein 1 gB is equal to 1 gold gram. After the purchase gold bars (of 99, 5% or higher purity) are stored in the specialized secure Vault while corresponding quantity of gold grams (gB) is transferred to electronic gBullion client account.
At any time user can exchange digital gold (gB) for real gold and obtain gold bars from a Vault located in UAE, or take delivery to specified address. Besides gB holder can transfer his digital gold (gB) to another gBullion user. All transfers are instant and free.
“Our experts were to develop internet service based on three principles: minimum charges, easy use, and high degree of reliability. Their work resulted in the unique product of high quality that is coincident with all these demands. Today a growing number of investors become interested in gold, that is of no wonder for gold turns to be the most stable currency in the world, and gBullion is the most convenient instrument for operations with this metal” – Andrew Owen, CEO gBullion.
Features:
- possibility to buy gold in minimum quantity (from 0,0001 gram);
- gB currency is 100% gold backed;
- the best market prices for gold purchase and sale through internet;
- insurance of all gold bars;
- referral program and other variants of business with gBullion;
The system operator is GBULLION DMCC Company registered in Dubai, UAE, and licensed to sell gold.
GBULLION DMCC work is inspected by the CPA firm. An auditor’s report with the information about available assets and quantity of gold bars at vaults will be regularly announced in our site. At the moment the site gBullion operates in test mode and only in English. Other languages will be soon available.
Christine Thompson
Manager of PR & Marketing Communications
www.gbullion.com
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Day after day, China’s heavyweight status becomes more pronounced. We’ve discussed it before, due to its economy, which is in the process of overtaking Japan’s second place in size and its growing influence in Latin America. Today, we take a look at its strengthening influence in Asia… and Japan in particular.
According to the Financial Times:
“Last year, the Japanese economy shrank by more than 5 per cent. And the high hopes that surrounded the reformist government of Yukio Hatoyama, the prime minister who was elected last summer, have quickly dissipated. Mr Hatoyama’s approval ratings are sinking and the Japanese business and civil service establishment seem eager to dismiss him as an ineffectual clown.
“How Japan reacts to this new sense of weakness – exaggerated though it may be – will matter to the whole world. The country’s size and strategic importance make it critical to America’s Pacific strategy and to China’s geopolitical calculations.
“As it adapts to Japan’s new circumstances the Hatoyama government has, almost unwittingly, initiated a debate about the value of Japan’s alliance with the US. Some western observers in Tokyo muse that perhaps Japan is once again following its historic policy of adapting to shifts in global politics by aligning itself with great powers. Before the first world war the country had a special relationship with Britain. In the inter-war period Japan allied itself with Germany. Since 1945, it has stuck closely to America. Perhaps the ground is being prepared for a new ’special relationship’ with China?”
The signs of Japan’s shifting allegiances are showing up in a variety of ways. A statement from Japan’s foreign minister revealed his perspective that, “this will be the age of Asia.” Similarly, Japan’s prime minister has criticized America’s “unrestrained market fundamentalism.”
Tellingly, the verbal distancing has crossed over into the military realm as well. The Democratic Party of Japan has expressed a desire to see the US move its Okinawa military base. Given the US-Japanese security treaty, and the roughly 50,000 Americans in place there, it’s no small matter to mention offhand.
You can read more about the relationship dynamics between the three nations in Financial Times coverage of Japan edging from America and towards China.
Best,
Rocky Vega,
The Daily Reckoning
Japan’s Growing Attachment to China Over the US originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."
“A grievous blow has struck the ghetto. They are asking us to give up the best we possess - the children and the elderly. I was unworthy of having a child of my own, so I gave the best years of my life to children. I've lived and breathed with children, I never imagined I would be forced to deliver this sacrifice to the altar with my own hands. In my old age, I must stretch out my hands and beg: Brothers and sisters! Hand them over to me! Fathers and mothers: Give me your children!" -- Mordecai Chaim Rumkowski, Head of the Lodz Ghetto Judenrat, in a speech later entitled "Give Me Your Children" wherein he pleaded with the Jews in the ghetto to give up children of ten years of age and younger, as well as the old and the sick, so that others (including himself) might survive the Nazi terror.
Mordechai Chaim Rumkowski, "Useful Jew." The term useful Jew was used in various historical contexts, typically describing a Jewish person useful in implementing an official authorities' policy, sometimes by oppressing other Jews. . . During the Holocaust in Nazi-occupied Europe, the Jews who helped implement the Final Solution, such as members of Judenrat or the Jewish Police, were considered "valuable Jews" (German: Wertvolle Juden). They, and sometimes members of their families as well, were immune from deportation for extermination so long as they served the Nazis' purposes. Also, Jews who had helped plan the 1936 Summer Olympics in Berlin were considered "useful" and were spared deportation. -- Wikipedia.
I guess one of the positive side effects of this current political debacle is that the anti-firearms ownership crowd hasn't been able to launch any massive new legislation. . . There is also that pesky bit of history where former President Bill Clinton tried the silly, pointless and impotent "Assault Weapons Ban" resulting in the removal of his House and Senate majorities, thus neutering his political power. . .
That doesn't mean that a few individuals in ATF haven't had their Wheaties for breakfast since the Democrats took control of the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. The end result has been a marked decrease in communication and working together with the community, as some of these people exercise their agendas, interpretations, and points of view in how the regulations are implemented. Fortunately, there is still a vast majority in the public service at ATF who are doing their jobs, enforcing the laws, looking for criminals, ensuring compliance, and not trying to create de facto gun control programs out of thin air by parsing words. So, at this point, it looks good for the status quo.
What does the future hold? Certainly more of the same. There are a few misguided crusaders on the pro-gun side who cross the line; probably the most dangerous people there are to us because they will sacrifice anyone and anything to their generally misguided and usually self-serving agendas. Up in the mountains, we used to have a self-mocking saying. "Hey, Elmer, why don't you go poke that stupid old bear over there with a stick. Stupid old bear." The problem here is that all of the rest of us are are near that bear too. One has to wonder how much damage has been done by this very small group of "true believers" who have attacked the general employees of ATF instead of trying to effect true change in policy, regulation or law. Generally, their arguments are poorly thought out and rely on parsing words, instead of reading the laws as written and working within that as well as the existing political structure to effect real, solid changes. We need good, solid well thought out negotiation and proper legal and legislative remedies to address our issues. Join the NFATCA and help.
I can't help but hope that this year, even as the dark clouds of fanatic modern liberalism are on the horizon, that the good people of our country, both liberal and conservative, and the countries of many of our readers, prevail and keep their freedom, their safety and their rights. We have real enemies out there, people sworn to killing off any who don't agree with them, abd we need to stand against them instead of tearing ourselves apart. -- Dan.